Officials of the CFTC pressed cryptocurrency markets about speculation in the market and asked how to prevent manipulation.

What's going on?

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory on September 22 regarding contracts that involve the speech, appearance or interaction of a named person such as "Will the President speak Chinese at least 5 times?"

The important point is that the video clearly proves only that the words are being spoken, but it does not prove whether someone knew the script in advance or if the speaker chose to use those words to affect betting.

How important is

The CFTC considers this type of contract to "have a tendency to be easily manipulated", which is an expression derived from the duty of stock exchanges that are already registered to sign contracts that do not risk being manipulated.

However, this is the official point of view. It's not a binding law and it doesn't directly prohibit Kalshi from trading in futures markets.

There has to be some kind of movement.

The article examines the market mention of Kalshi on September 23rd and finds three contracts: Donald Trump's speech at a ceremony to welcome China's President, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's televised interview, and BlackBerry's quarterly business meeting.

Trump's contract stipulated that the September 24th ceremony would primarily be broadcast live on video. If Kalshi employees could not get content from the video, they would use an official meeting recorder and prohibit staff agencies involved with holding data inside the betting facility.

Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana told RotoWire on September 23 that "we have already dealt with this recommendation after discussions with the CFTC before" but did not specify any changes in the market explored.

Have you ever had a case like this?

There are two cases that can explain the risk well: the first is a case of cancer.

• An August agreement with Gabriel Perez found that the White House's teleprompter controller used access to a script before actually speaking. The purchase and sale contract mentions between December 2025 and February 2026 earnings of $107,539 without editing words, just enough for someone else to know.
• July's agreement with former U.S. President George Santos found that he was betting on whether or not to attend the State of the Union address by posting false information about his plans, making prices move in his favor.

Both agreements do not indicate that there has been a breach in the three contracts listed above.

What's the matter?

The CFTC asks four questions that the market must explain in each contract: whether the resulting regulator has a legal or professional obligation to interfere with the parties' play; whether it is being pressured or encouraged by someone else; whether an outside person verifies the results under public scrutiny; and whether those words or actions have any real significance in their context.

For traders or those interested in the prediction market, the point is to make it clear that each signal has an internal data carrier verification and surveillance covering both "outcome selector" and "pre-knowledgeable".