Bitcoin's bear market is weakening, and the bull market may be next.

What's going on?

Before the ETF fund was launched, most of the Bitcoin 's holders were retail investors, crypto funds and short-term speculative traders. That used to be true, but that has changed now because it gives financial advisors and institutional investors familiar tools for adding Bitcoin into traditional portfolios.

In an interview with the media, Rasmussen explained that this new group of investors approaching Bitcoin is completely different.

Why is the carrier structure important?

The answer lies in the ownership ratio, institutional investors typically provide around Bitcoin . 2% of the port While crypto line sub-investors may hold,20%30% or more of the total money

Rasmussen gives a simple example: "If the price goes down,50% my port just went down".1% That's the view of an investor who only reserves.1% When markets hit hard, the pain is more varied depending on who owns the coin.

Rebalancing is a game-changing mechanism.

Another point of interest is the "rebalancing" behaviour of financial advisors who set a target of Bitcoin .2% Buy more when the price goes down. But if Bitcoin runs up to eat the port's space, that same investor might Sell some at the next round of Rebelance.

The result is a two-way mechanism: it slows sales, but also limits the scale of price inflation.

Is the frontal lobe going to be different?

Mark Connors, chief investment officer (CIO) of Risk Dimensions expects increased institutional participation to help the drawdown lower than previous rounds. Seventy-seven years80% He saw that more institutions could mean "a smaller blow-off top because of rebalancing".

But there's nothing free in this market. It decreases over time, but so does the reward. That's a higher price, but the legs are not as sharp.

What does that mean for Thai investors?

This news directly relates to the context in Thailand, as the Thai crypto market under the SEC (Thailand) 's supervision has a similar structure: major players are retailers through Bitkub and OKX that trade in pairs of THB dollars.

If the ETF mechanism actually causes the Bitcoin to swing less, the price seen by Thai investors (converted into THB ) may have a gentle downward swing but the opportunity for an uptrend of first-cycle intensity disappears with it. The rebalancing behavior of global institutions will be transmitted through buying and selling forces to the spot market including the Thai market via arbitrage between markets

In Myanmar, where some people use crypto to escape the weakness of kyat, reduced volatility may make Bitcoin more stable as a store of value tool, but real results are yet to follow in the next round.

The bottom line: the Bitcoin market is becoming more and more of a "port" market, and that's changing both slump and bump patterns.