The data has proven: Bitcoin doesn't care about higher bond yields in the long run.

What's the move?

The MOVE indicator is a measure of the expected volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds if they rise, meaning that markets expect bond prices to rally sharply. On Wednesday it surged21% to 95, its highest level since April 1 (data from TradingView).

Why is this important? Because Treasury bonds are the foundation of the global financial system, and when bond markets go haywire, monetary conditions tighten, borrowing costs rise, and investors often flee risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin dropped from $87,200 left $83,500 because of what

The price of Bitcoin moved from $87,200 down to $83,500 on Wednesday, which coincided with the Dow's MOVE boom. However, another possible explanation is that the market had just rallied earlier and was only looking for a reason to pause.

It started with U.S. economic data, not the financial crisis.

The composite index of the S.&U.S. P Global in September jumped to 58.4 from 56.0 in August, its highest level since July 2021 and business activity expanded the fastest in more than five years with accumulated inflation pressures rising

This data reinforces the expectation that the Fed will have to raise interest rates after raising 25 basis points in September, resulting in 10-year and 2-year bond yields rising simultaneously.

An interesting phenomenon: Europe was hit harder than the United States.

Although the U.S. data is a bit of an eyesore, if you look closely at the composite picture, French bond yields turned out to be higher than in the United States on Wednesday, and the UK was almost as high as the US Robin Brooks, senior research fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at IIF, said that Italy and Greece were in similar situations.

What does that mean for Thai investors?

When the global bond market moves, risky assets such as cryptocurrencies are often followed by a sell-off. For crypto holders through Thai markets that trade in baht ( THB ), the reference price will move with the dollar market, so it is advisable to keep an eye on both Dow Jones MOVE , Fed interest rates and exchange rates in tandem to understand the overall picture that this rally was caused by capital factors rather than specific problems of Bitcoin

This content is for information, not investment advice.