Large institutional funds are polarizing over the next direction for bitcoin, as bets on massive value markets begin to shift.

What's the CFTC data for this week?

The CFTC's report for the week ending September 22 states that a group of leveraged funds increased their bid positions in CME's standard bitcoin futures contract,5.2% reversing weakness from the previous week, while an asset manager raised its bid position to 411 contracts. This move occurred as two groups of traders walked alongside each other as Bitcoin entered the new week.USD

When one standard contract is sized,5 BTC the change1,599 of a fund's contract equals an increase in net futures exposure in par.BTC The number7,995 BTC

As of Tuesday, the fund held buy positions4,745 contracts and sell positions12,698 contracts leaving a put position.7,953 Contracts compared to6,354 contracts one week earlier. In terms of buying positions decreased by 800 contracts and selling positions increased by 799 contracts so that the expansion in put was not caused solely by opening new trading positions but also closing co-trading positions and figures.7,995 BTC A measure of future market volatility with no reports showing matching bitcoin sales in real markets

Asset managers hold buy 4,962 contracts and sell 1,791 contracts, making the actual buying position at 3,171 contracts an increase from 2,760 contracts because adding 434 contract buys and 23 sales positions increases the outstanding volume of standard bitcoin futures on CME 1,542 Contracts come to 22,315 September 22 contracts. This figure indicates the number of pending contracts across the market on Tuesdays rather than trading activity on Sundays

Why is it important to separate these two groups?

The fact that a leveraged fund increases its short selling position1,599 while an asset manager adds 411 long positions occurs with the expansion of outstanding contracts, suggesting more money entering the market but placing extreme polarization. However, this does not conclude that the fund has an optimistic view because it may sell futures to avoid the risk of buying bitcoin in real markets,ETF and CFTC's Futures Market Catalogue doesn't show holdings pairs in cash markets.[citation needed] Similarly, asset managers' trading positions are associated with forward-looking risks rather than actual cryptocurrency purchases.CryptoSlate

Price and market data.

The CFTC explains that the weekly report measures outstanding contract volume on Tuesdays and is typically released on Fridays, while Bitcoin's CryptoSlate front page on Sunday mornings shows bitcoin prices near$84,650 and has a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $16.14 billion in total. As of 09:13 UTC, actual market price was backstage for the new week, whereas futures markets reports continued to reference September 22.

The editorial also cites related reports such as the uptick in Bitcoin,$80,000 which is seen to lack institutional confidence, carry trade in futures markets yielding returns7.89% and has been linked with movements ETF of Wall Street value$850M, including U.S. government Treasury fluctuations 5.2% and a decline in leverage.$1.7

How do Thai and Myanmar market watchers read this?

For readers in Thailand, this figure helps to explain that the short-term pressure on bitcoin may come from large funds' overhead market position and not just the actual market price displayed as THB on local platforms. Platforms registered under the direction of the SEC (Thailand) offices such as Bitkub often set their prices from global markets and convert them into THB , so a move by Bitcoin at USD , the value of money THB /USD and the amount of contracts still pending on CME can be reflected simultaneously at the price THB .

For users in Myanmar, seeing the price of bitcoin on USD and global market data ahead helps to distinguish that local prices converted into currency may be moving away from both Bitcoin itself, its value, and the volatility of the global markets.

What's next?

A reading of CME's forward market price versus actual markets and the next outstanding contract volume will help to see if there is still an incentive for holding a risk-protected sell position after Tuesday. The CFTC report's upcoming edition will say whether the divide between funds and asset managers remains, but both metrics combined cannot identify which funds are holding Bitcoin in arrears.

Originally published on CryptoSlate