Bitcoin's DVOL dropped to 34.3, while MOVE rose to 33% in two days.

Why is the combination of U.S. Treasury bonds and options BTC parked?

What is this event?

Between September 22 and 24, the volatility index of US MOVE bonds rose from 78.56 to 104.58, an increase of about 33% in two days, reaching its highest point since late March. This upward adjustment reflects that options markets referring to interest rates in the United States are pricing higher volatility.

On the other hand, a volatility index of bitcoin options (BTC) called DVOL calculated by Deribit decreased from 37.4 to 36.04 and was near its lowest level for the year. This decline suggests that the short-term option market is pricing lower volatility in line with rising U.S. bond markets.

Why is this number important?

MOVE and DVOL don't tell you the price direction directly, but what options markets are predicting about future movements. MOVE is derived from U.S. interest rate swap option prices, which ICE describes as a combination of bond market fluctuations.

DVOL is a measure in which Deribit uses the option price of BTC to estimate expected volatility, not actual past volatility. A falling DVOL near its lowest point for the year may indicate that investors in an BTC option view short-term movements as less aggressive than previous periods but does not imply long-term stability.

Affecting BTC Thai readers and users

For Thai readers who follow the price of BTC through platforms such as Bitkub or other exchanges, viewing this figure should be separated from the actual price in THB baht because MOVE and DVOL are expected figures for the options market, not the price BTC and is not a buy or sell signal. Readers in Thailand should follow information from GLT Thailand and official platform announcements.

If you don't trade options, DVOL can also be useful as an indicator of expectations for the movements of BTC whereas MOVE suggests that US interest rate and bond concerns may affect risk assets in general. For users in Myanmar who track BTC through various language reports it should be interpreted similarly: see market data rather than local price information

A word of caution.

The rapidly changing volatility index and option calculations do not reflect investor sentiment in the same way as price movements, so MOVE or DVOL should not be used alone to predict BTC prices.